Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem
Paramo is very susceptible to land use and climate change, and afforestation of paramo ecosystems with pine is a common practice. The effects of pine plantations are multiple, including on the basin's hydrology. To gather insight into the impact of afforestation on the hydrology of a river basi...
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| Format: | masterThesis |
| Language: | eng |
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Universidad de Cuenca
2021
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| Online Access: | http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/36822 |
| _version_ | 1785802468578295808 |
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| author | Cabrera Balarezo, Juan José |
| author2 | Timbe Castro, Luis Manuel |
| author_facet | Timbe Castro, Luis Manuel Cabrera Balarezo, Juan José |
| author_sort | Cabrera Balarezo, Juan José |
| collection | DSpace |
| description | Paramo is very susceptible to land use and climate change, and afforestation of paramo ecosystems with pine is a common practice. The effects of pine plantations are multiple, including on the basin's hydrology. To gather insight into the impact of afforestation on the hydrology of a river basin a comparative study was conducted with the objective to derive answers to the following questions: 1) How to calibrate the parameters of hydrological models subject to land use change? 2) What is the impact on peaks, total flow, and baseflow when land use gradually changes from tussock-grass to pine plantation? and 3) Is the impact different when land use changes gradually from upstream to downstream (U-D) or from downstream to upstream (D-U)? The research was conducted on two paired catchments, respectively the Zhurucay basin with tussock grass vegetation and the Mpinos basin with pine plantation. The hydrology was simulated with the HBV-light software. In addition to the traditional calibration, the baseflow/total flow ratio was used as an objective function. This procedure shows a considerable improvement in the sensitivity of the PERC parameter, improving the calibration of the model to mimic land use change. After calibration and validation, scenarios of land use change were simulated by transferring the calibrated parameter values. The results show that total flow and baseflow are respectively reduced by 21% and 66% and peaks reduce on average 21% but individually they can drop up to 61%. Also, we found that the impact is stronger in dry periods than in humid periods. The difference in the impact between D-U and U-D approaches is not conclusive and should be further studied. This study presents a calibration approach to quantify the effects of land use change before it is done. These tools are low-cost and could be used in many applications on issues such as land use planning, water resources management, and water conservation. |
| format | masterThesis |
| id | oai:dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec:123456789-36822 |
| institution | Universidad de Cuenca |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Universidad de Cuenca |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec:123456789-368222021-10-04T08:00:52Z Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem Cabrera Balarezo, Juan José Timbe Castro, Luis Manuel Ingeniería Páramos Usos de la tierra Ecosistema Hidrología Paramo is very susceptible to land use and climate change, and afforestation of paramo ecosystems with pine is a common practice. The effects of pine plantations are multiple, including on the basin's hydrology. To gather insight into the impact of afforestation on the hydrology of a river basin a comparative study was conducted with the objective to derive answers to the following questions: 1) How to calibrate the parameters of hydrological models subject to land use change? 2) What is the impact on peaks, total flow, and baseflow when land use gradually changes from tussock-grass to pine plantation? and 3) Is the impact different when land use changes gradually from upstream to downstream (U-D) or from downstream to upstream (D-U)? The research was conducted on two paired catchments, respectively the Zhurucay basin with tussock grass vegetation and the Mpinos basin with pine plantation. The hydrology was simulated with the HBV-light software. In addition to the traditional calibration, the baseflow/total flow ratio was used as an objective function. This procedure shows a considerable improvement in the sensitivity of the PERC parameter, improving the calibration of the model to mimic land use change. After calibration and validation, scenarios of land use change were simulated by transferring the calibrated parameter values. The results show that total flow and baseflow are respectively reduced by 21% and 66% and peaks reduce on average 21% but individually they can drop up to 61%. Also, we found that the impact is stronger in dry periods than in humid periods. The difference in the impact between D-U and U-D approaches is not conclusive and should be further studied. This study presents a calibration approach to quantify the effects of land use change before it is done. These tools are low-cost and could be used in many applications on issues such as land use planning, water resources management, and water conservation. El páramo es muy susceptible al cambio en el uso de la tierra y al cambio climático, y la forestación de ecosistemas de páramo con pino es una práctica común. Los efectos de las plantaciones de pinos son múltiples, incluso sobre la hidrología de la cuenca. Para conocer mejor el impacto de la forestación en la hidrología de una cuenca hidrográfica se realizó un estudio comparativo con el objetivo de obtener respuestas a las siguientes preguntas: 1) ¿Cómo calibrar los parámetros de los modelos hidrológicos sujetos a cambios de uso de la tierra? 2) ¿Cuál es el impacto sobre los picos, el caudal total y el caudal base cuando el uso de la tierra cambia gradualmente de pasto a plantaciones de pinos? y 3) ¿El impacto es diferente cuando el uso de la tierra cambia gradualmente de aguas arriba a aguas abajo (U-D) o de aguas abajo a aguas arriba (D-U)? La investigación se llevó a cabo en dos cuencas pares, respectivamente, la cuenca del Zhurucay con vegetación de pasto y la cuenca de Mpinos con plantaciones de pino. La hidrología se simuló con el software HBV-light. Además de la calibración tradicional, se utilizó la relación caudal base / caudal total como función objetivo. Este procedimiento muestra una mejora considerable en la sensibilidad del parámetro PERC, mejorando la calibración del modelo para imitar el cambio de uso de la tierra. Después de la calibración y validación, se simularon escenarios de cambio de uso de la tierra transfiriendo los valores de los parámetros calibrados. Los resultados muestran que el flujo total y el flujo base se reducen respectivamente en un 21% y un 66% y los picos se reducen en un promedio del 21%, pero individualmente pueden caer hasta el 61%. Además, encontramos que el impacto es más fuerte en los períodos secos que en los húmedos. La diferencia en el impacto entre los enfoques D-U y U-D no es contundente y debería estudiarse más. Este estudio presenta un procedimiento de calibración para cuantificar los efectos del cambio de uso de la tierra antes de que se lleve a cabo. Estas herramientas son de bajo costo y podrían usarse en muchas aplicaciones en temas como la planificación del uso de la tierra, la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la conservación del agua. Magíster en Hidrología con mención en Ecohidrología Cuenca 2021-09-27T20:30:27Z 2021-09-27T20:30:27Z 2021-09-27 masterThesis http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/36822 eng TM4;1858 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ openAccess application/pdf 37 páginas application/pdf Universidad de Cuenca |
| spellingShingle | Ingeniería Páramos Usos de la tierra Ecosistema Hidrología Cabrera Balarezo, Juan José Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title | Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title_full | Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title_fullStr | Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title_short | Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| title_sort | applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem |
| topic | Ingeniería Páramos Usos de la tierra Ecosistema Hidrología |
| url | http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/36822 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cabrerabalarezojuanjose applyinghydrologicalmodelingtounraveltheeffectsoflandusechangeontherunoffofaparamoecosystem |