Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions
Socio-ecological systems can be represented as a complex network of causal interactions. Modelling such systems requires methodologies that are able to take uncertainty into account. Due to their probabilistic nature, Bayesian networks are a powerful tool for representing complex systems where inter...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10835/14999 |
| _version_ | 1789406681969459200 |
|---|---|
| author | Fernández Ropero, Rosa María Rumí Rodríguez, Rafael Aguilera Aguilera, Pedro |
| author_facet | Fernández Ropero, Rosa María Rumí Rodríguez, Rafael Aguilera Aguilera, Pedro |
| author_sort | Fernández Ropero, Rosa María |
| collection | DSpace |
| description | Socio-ecological systems can be represented as a complex network of causal interactions. Modelling such systems requires methodologies that are able to take uncertainty into account. Due to their probabilistic nature, Bayesian networks are a powerful tool for representing complex systems where interactions between variables are subject to uncertainty. In this paper, we study the interactions between social and natural subsystems (land use and water flow components) using hybrid Bayesian networks based on the Mixture of Truncated Exponentials model. This study aims to provide a new methodology to model systemic change in a socio-ecological context. Two endogenous changes - agricultural intensification and the maintenance of traditional cropland - are proposed. Intensification of the agricultural practices leads to a rise in the rate of immigration to the area, as well as to greater water losses through evaporation. By contrast, maintenance of traditional cropland hardly changes the social structure, while increasing evapotranspiration rates and improving the control over runoff water. These results indicate that hybrid Bayesian networks are an excellent tool for modelling social-natural interactions. |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| id | oai:repositorio.ual.es:10835-14999 |
| institution | Universidad de Cuenca |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:repositorio.ual.es:10835-149992024-01-09T11:54:58Z Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions Fernández Ropero, Rosa María Rumí Rodríguez, Rafael Aguilera Aguilera, Pedro Systemic change Socio-Ecological System Water flows Hybrid Bayesian Networks Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials Socio-ecological systems can be represented as a complex network of causal interactions. Modelling such systems requires methodologies that are able to take uncertainty into account. Due to their probabilistic nature, Bayesian networks are a powerful tool for representing complex systems where interactions between variables are subject to uncertainty. In this paper, we study the interactions between social and natural subsystems (land use and water flow components) using hybrid Bayesian networks based on the Mixture of Truncated Exponentials model. This study aims to provide a new methodology to model systemic change in a socio-ecological context. Two endogenous changes - agricultural intensification and the maintenance of traditional cropland - are proposed. Intensification of the agricultural practices leads to a rise in the rate of immigration to the area, as well as to greater water losses through evaporation. By contrast, maintenance of traditional cropland hardly changes the social structure, while increasing evapotranspiration rates and improving the control over runoff water. These results indicate that hybrid Bayesian networks are an excellent tool for modelling social-natural interactions. 2024-01-09T11:54:58Z 2024-01-09T11:54:58Z 2016 info:eu-repo/semantics/article R.F. Ropero, P.A.Aguilera, R. Rumí. Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, 75, pan 362-372 http://hdl.handle.net/10835/14999 en https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815214002096 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Elsevier |
| spellingShingle | Systemic change Socio-Ecological System Water flows Hybrid Bayesian Networks Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials Fernández Ropero, Rosa María Rumí Rodríguez, Rafael Aguilera Aguilera, Pedro Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title | Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title_full | Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title_fullStr | Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title_short | Modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| title_sort | modelling uncertainty in social-natural interactions |
| topic | Systemic change Socio-Ecological System Water flows Hybrid Bayesian Networks Mixtures of Truncated Exponentials |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10835/14999 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fernandezroperorosamaria modellinguncertaintyinsocialnaturalinteractions AT rumirodriguezrafael modellinguncertaintyinsocialnaturalinteractions AT aguileraaguilerapedro modellinguncertaintyinsocialnaturalinteractions |